ICRA Identifies Major Unmet Need for Tools to Predict Cardiopulmonary Risk in COPD

Today the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance (ICRA) announced the publication of its latest manuscript in BMJ Open Respiratory Research, revealing a critical unmet need in COPD care: the lack of validated tools to predict cardiopulmonary risk in people living with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).  

Why Cardiopulmonary Risk Matters for People with COPD  

COPD is associated with a high burden of multimorbidity, particularly cardiovascular disease.  

Preventable morbidity and mortality from COPD often stems from two types of events:  

• major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and  

• acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD).  

Together, these events put COPD patients at increased cardiopulmonary risk.  

What This Study Looked For  

ICRA’s earlier consensus study identified key evidence gaps in cardiopulmonary risk in COPD, including the need for a prediction model for cardiopulmonary events in COPD.  

Such a tool could help clinicians identify individuals with COPD who may benefit from targeted interventions to reduce future cardiopulmonary events. 

In our latest review in BMJ ORR, ICRA set out to summarise any existing models for predicting these cardiopulmonary events in community-based care settings.  

What The Study Found  

Despite the high burden of MACE and AECOPD, ICRA found an absence of evidence-based models that predict this composite outcome.  

Even when considering cardiovascular disease, exacerbations and mortality individually, only a few models exist, and these are limited by small sizes and little to no external validation beyond model development.  

Reflecting on the piece, ICRA’s co-chair Professor Mohit Bhutani said: “It’s rewarding to see this paper published, as it highlights a critical gap in community-based prediction models for cardiopulmonary events in COPD and the urgent need for tools that can better identify high-risk individuals.” The Alliance co-chair went on to add: “We hope it catalyses future research and collaborative efforts to improve outcomes for people living with COPD, and that ICRA can help be at the forefront of that change”. 

A Clear Need For Better Tools 

Given the significant impacts of cardiopulmonary events on COPD outcomes, this study underscores the urgent need for further research to develop, externally validate and prospectively test a prediction model specifically for cardiopulmonary risk in patients with COPD. 

Read the full manuscript here, to learn more about the study: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjresp-2025-003752  

For more information, contact ICRA via ICRAComms@optimumpatientcare.org  

Reference: Joseph T, Raveendra K, Haris M, et al. Community-based prediction models of cardiovascular events, acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis on behalf of the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance. BMJ Open Respiratory Research. 2026;13:e003752.